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Daily Archives: October 12th, 2009

My earlier forecast agrees with a National Association for Business Economics survey of top business economists:

1. In my post 14.5 million Jobless & Counting I had shown that if the Government does not do anything radical from historical responses our unemployement rate will take until June 2014 to reach 6.1%. 87% of the business economist surveyed expect that unemployement will drop to 4.7% by 2012 or later. That is, the history of President Carter suggest that President Obama is looking to be a one-term president, too. I hope not but that is what it appears as of today October 12, 2009.

2. In my post Have We Hit the Housing Bottom? the business economist concur that home prices will experience a gain from 2010.

3. In my post Have We Hit the Housing Bottom? I forecasted that banks will have difficulties until 2012, and will thus be a drag on the economy. The business economist concur that this will be the case as they expect financial markets to return to normal sometime between 2011 & 2013. 

Disclosure: I’m a capitalist too, and my musings & opinions on this blog are for informational/educational purposes and part of my efforts to learn from the mistakes of other people. Hope you do, too. These musings are not to be taken as financial advise, and are based on data that is assumed to be correct. Therefore, my opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog is not intended to either negate or advocate any persons, entity, product, services or political position.